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气候变化对格陵兰中西部沿海地区雪地动态的影响
Josep Bonsoms1, Marc Oliva1, Esteban Alonso-González2
1Department of Geography, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain.
The Science of the total environment
|December 30, 2023
概括
未来的格陵兰雪地将因气候变化而显著减少,模型预测降雪深度和降雪日数减少. 这些变化是由气温上升和辐射增加所驱动的,将影响北极生态系统.
科学领域:
- 北极气候科学 北极气候科学
- 冰川学的冰川学
- 生态系统动态生态系统动态
背景情况:
- 格陵兰的无冰区的雪花模式对生态系统至关重要.
- 了解雪对气候变化的反应对于预测未来北极动态至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在不同的气候变化场景下,分析格陵兰格陵兰岛Qeqertarsuaq的未来雪地演变.
- 评估气候变化对主要雪地气候指标的影响.
主要方法:
- 使用基于物理的雪模型 (FSM2),与观察到的数据进行验证.
- 强制模型与合模型对比项目第6阶段 (CMIP6) 预测共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 2-4.5和SSP5-8.5.5的预测.
- 使用CanESM5和MIROC6气候模型进行未来预测.
主要成果:
- 在CanESM5和MIROC6项目中,季节性降雪深度,降雪日数和降雪率均大幅减少.
- 在SSP5-8.5情景下,CanESM5预测到2090-2100年,雪地覆盖面的减少将比MIROC6 (高达-57%) 减少得更大 (高达-74%),而SSP5-8.5情景则预测到2090-2100年.
- 空气温度升高和下降的长波辐射是雪地变化的主要驱动因素,导致更频繁的降雨事件.
结论:
- 格陵兰岛的雪盖演变对所选择的气候模型和排放场景非常敏感.
- 预计雪地动态的变化将对北极的水文和生态系统产生重大影响.
- 对于北极地区的适应和减缓战略来说,对未来的雪动态有更好的理解至关重要.
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