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剖析气候变化风险和金融市场不稳定性:对生态风险管理的影响
Feng Ma1, Jiawei Cao1, Yizhi Wang2
1School of Economics and Management, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, Sichuan, China.
Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|December 30, 2023
概括
一个新的综合气候变化关注 (ACCC) 指数有效预测金融市场风险溢价. 这种气候风险指标为投资者和政策制定者在应对环境挑战时提供了宝贵的见解.
科学领域:
- 环境金融 环境金融
- 气候风险评估 气候风险评估
- 金融市场动态 金融市场动态
背景情况:
- 气候变化对全球金融市场构成重大风险.
- 现有的金融模型往往低估了与气候有关的风险.
- 需要强大的指标来评估金融决策中的气候变化问题.
研究的目的:
- 引入和验证综合气候变化关注指数 (ACCC).
- 量化气候风险对金融市场表现的影响.
- 评估ACCC指数对投资者和政策制定者的有用性.
主要方法:
- 总体气候变化关注 (ACCC) 指数的发展.
- 对ACCC指数对市场风险溢价的预测能力的统计分析.
- 对ACCC指数与经济预测指标和现有风险指数的评估.
- 评估ACCC指数对平均差异投资者资产配置的影响.
主要成果:
- ACCC指数可靠地预测市场风险溢价,优于现有模型.
- 该指数提供了14个经济指数和12个风险/不确定性指数之外的额外预测信息.
- ACCC指数增强了资产配置策略,产生了显著的经济收益.
- 该指数显示,绿色股票,非国有企业股票和低污染地区的股票的回报预测更强.
结论:
- ACCC指数是了解和管理金融市场气候风险的宝贵工具.
- 调查结果支持将气候问题纳入投资战略和政策制定.
- 这项研究为促进环境挑战中可持续经济增长的适应性措施提供了基础.
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