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沙漠化地区将损失多少碳储存? 来自甘省的多个政策场景分析

Jiamin Liu¹, Xiutong Pei¹, Weijie Yu²

¹College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China; The Key Laboratory of Western China's Environmental Systems, Ministry of Education (MOE), Lanzhou 730000, China.

The Science of the total environment

|December 31, 2023

概括

甘省面临着由于荒漠化而造成的大量碳储存损失. 实施生态红线政策可以帮助扭转这一趋势,并支持碳中和目标.

科学领域:

环境科学环境科学
气候变化研究气候变化研究
生态建模生态建模

背景情况:

气候变化减缓和生态平衡取决于碳储存.
中国甘省因土地荒漠化而经历严重的碳储量耗尽.
在各种场景下,沙漠化地区的碳储存动态存在有限的研究.

研究的目的:

根据生态系统服务和脆弱性,在甘省划出生态红线.
在不同的政策情景下,预测未来的土地使用和碳储存变化.
为了确定推动碳储存变化的因素的空间模式.

主要方法:

使用生态系统服务和脆弱性的量化指标划出生态红线.
补丁生成土地利用模拟 (PLUS) 模型用于预测土地使用和碳储存.
地理加权回归 (GWR) 模型用于分析驱动因素的空间差异.

主要成果:

生态红线覆盖甘省的27% (11.8 × 104平方公里).
PLUS模型显示了高精度 (0.975整体精度,0.964卡帕).
根据基线情景,预计到2050年碳储量将减少1.62×107. 生态红线情景扭转了这一趋势,到2050年实现全球生态情景效应的61.7%.
自然因素在东南部影响碳储存,而人类活动在中部地区占主导地位.

结论:

生态红线政策有效地减轻了甘省的碳储存损失.
了解驱动因素的空间变化对于有针对性的保护工作至关重要.
该研究为实现碳中和的政策建议提供了科学基础.

关键词:

碳储存是碳的储存方式.驱动因素驱动因素生态红线是一个生态红线.土地使用变化.有多种情景可以实现.

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