使用日本机场查数据重建印度的COVID-19发病率
Shiqi Liu1, Asami Anzai1, Hiroshi Nishiura2
1Kyoto University School of Public Health, Yoshidakonoe cho, Sakyo ku, Kyoto City, 6068501, Japan.
BMC infectious diseases
|January 3, 2024
概括
印度的COVID-19三角洲变种流行病 (2021年3月至7月) 感染了大约32-41%的人口,远远超过了已记录的病例. 这凸显了边境查数据对于估计在监测有限的地区的发病率的有用性.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 传染病的动态传染病的动态.
- 公共卫生监督 公共卫生监督
背景情况:
- 德尔塔变种 (B.1.617.2) 在印度 (2021年3月至7月) 造成了大规模的COVID-19流行病,有1900万例确诊病例.
- 医疗保健和检测能力有限表明实际感染,发病率和死亡率明显高于报告.
- 之前的建模和过度死亡率研究表明,在这个流行病期间有很大的影响.
研究的目的:
- 为了估计2021年Delta变种流行期间印度COVID-19感染的真实发病率.
- 评估边境入境查数据对于估计有限监测人口中的疾病发病率的有用性.
主要方法:
- 利用来自日本的边境入境查数据,特别是分析从印度抵达的非日本旅客的强制性测试.
- 在2021年2月28日至7月3日期间,计算了抵达旅客中的COVID-19流行率,以逆向计算印度的发病率.
主要成果:
- 估计有448-576万例感染,占研究期间印度人口的31.8%-40.9%.
- 实际的COVID-19发病率大约是记录病例的30倍,原始感染死亡风险为0.47%.
- 经调整后的累积发病率估计可能高出2.3-2.6倍,考虑到出发前测试的变化.
结论:
- 估计累计感染风险为32%-41%,与其他研究一致,并且在出境前查时可能更高.
- 边境入境查数据对于估计在感染激增期间监测能力有限的国家的COVID-19发病率有价值.
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