结核病发病率和主要风险因素的全球,区域和国家趋势:使用2000年至2021年的数据进行的一项研究
Wentao Bai1, Edward Kwabena Ameyaw2,3
1School of Graduate Studies, Lingnan University, Tuen Mun, New Territories, Hong Kong. baiwentao0503@gmail.com.
BMC public health
|January 3, 2024
概括
全球结核病发病率正在下降,但仍然存在显著的空间模式. 低识字率是主要的风险因素,阻碍了在没有有针对性的干预的情况下到2030年结束大流行的目标.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 全球健康 全球健康
- 空间分析 空间分析
背景情况:
- 尽管取得了进展,但结核病 (TB) 仍然是一个重大的全球健康威胁.
- 了解空间和时间结核病发病率对于控制至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析结核病发病率 (2000-2021) 的时空趋势.
- 确定结核病发病率的关键风险因素.
- 预测到2030年结核病发病率的未来趋势.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自209个国家的二次数据 (2000-2021).
- 应用空间自相关性 (摩兰的I) 和多个阶段线性回归.
- 使用自回归集成移动平均线 (ARIMA) 进行未来预测.
主要成果:
- 全球结核病发病率和空间自相关性显示下降趋势 (2000-2021年).
- 结核病发病率的显著空间自相关性仍然存在 (莫兰I = 0.465,P < 0.001).
- 低识字率被确定为最普遍的危险因素.
结论:
- 结核病发病率和空间自相关性正在下降,但风险因素存在区域差异.
- 低识字率是主要的风险因素,但性别 (男性) 在一些地区占主导地位.
- 实现世界卫生组织到2030年消除结核病的目标是具有挑战性的;有针对性的干预措施是必不可少的.
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