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在温室气体变暖下,全球亚热带循环的强有力的变化.
Shijie Zhou1, Ping Huang2,3, Lin Wang4,5
1Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100029, Beijing, China.
Nature communications
|January 3, 2024
概括
全球亚热带循环 (SC) 正因气候变化而减弱. 这种由地表变暖和二氧化碳影响所导致的减弱,表明季风收缩和干旱干旱地区.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 大气动力学 大气动力学
- 地球系统科学 地球系统科学
背景情况:
- 亚热带循环 (SC),包括季风和亚热带高峰,对全球气候变化和远程连接至关重要.
- 由于特定区域的机制和各种预测,了解气候变暖中的SC变化是复杂的.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种方法来量化全球亚热带循环中的总体强度变化.
- 分析SC变化的驱动因素和时间表,以应对全球变暖和二氧化碳排放.
主要方法:
- 利用CMIP6模型数据来评估亚热带循环强度的变化.
- 区分了全球平均表面变暖和直接CO2辐射强迫对SC的影响.
主要成果:
- 在CMIP6模型中一致观察到全球亚热带循环的强烈减弱.
- 全球平均表面变暖被确定为SC减弱的主要驱动因素,直接CO2的抵消作用2.
- 对变暖和二氧化碳强迫的不同响应时间表解释了不同排放场景下的时间变化的SC变化.
结论:
- 降低的亚热带循环意味着季风范围的收缩.
- 与二氧化碳引起的全球变暖相关,预计SC减弱将导致与季风地区接壤的干旱地区的干旱.
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