增强特征选择的基于树的分类器的性能和可解释性,用于COVID-19检测.
Jesús Rufino1, Juan Marcos Ramírez1, Jose Aguilar1,2,3
1IMDEA Networks Institute, 28918, Madrid, Spain.
Heliyon
|January 3, 2024
概括
本研究引入了一种使用特征选择的机器学习方法,从自我报告的数据中准确预测COVID-19病例,增强公共卫生监测. 该方法考虑了症状之外的各种因素,以改善检测.
科学领域:
- 计算流行病学计算流行病学
- 机器学习在公共卫生中的应用.
- 传染病建模传染病建模
背景情况:
- 自我报告的数据为跟踪COVID-19等传染病提供了广泛的资源.
- 以前的方法经常使用有限的症状集,可能缺少更广泛的影响因素.
- 马里兰大学全球COVID-19趋势和影响调查 (UMD-CTIS) 收集了大量相关信息.
研究的目的:
- 开发和评估用于预测COVID-19阳性病例的机器学习方法,使用全面的自我报告数据.
- 通过特征选择,提高预测模型的可解释性和性能.
- 确定导致COVID-19在不同国家和时间段传播的关键因素.
主要方法:
- 在特征选择中使用递归特征消除 (RFE) 来优化模型输入.
- 使用了基于树的监督机器学习分类器:随机森林 (RF),光梯度增强 (LGB) 和极端梯度增强 (XGB).
- 通过使用像F1得分,灵敏度,特异性,精度,ROC和AUC这样的指标评估了2020-2021年巴西,加拿大,日本和南非的模型性能.
主要成果:
- 该方法成功预测了COVID-19病例,在不同国家和时间范围内具有高准确性.
- 功能选择有效地减少了输入变量,而不会影响检测性能.
- 沙普利值和特征重要性分析提供了对COVID-19发病率驱动因素的见解.
结论:
- 通过特征选择和广泛的数据输入增强的机器学习模型,为COVID-19预测提供了强大的方法.
- 该方法证明了各种数据源的实用性,包括社区信息和疫苗接种情况,用于流行病监测.
- 可解释性分析证实了该模型能够识别COVID-19传播的重要预测因素的能力.
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