全球热带气旋,海洋表面波浪的增加
Jian Shi1,2, Xiangbo Feng3,4, Ralf Toumi4
1Key Laboratory of Ministry of Education for Coastal Disaster and Protection, Hohai University, Nanjing, China.
Nature communications
|January 3, 2024
概括
热带气旋 (TC) 的海洋表面波浪正在增长. 最大波高度和能量显著增加,表明TC波风险上升,需要在未来关注.
科学领域:
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 大气科学 大气科学
背景情况:
- 与热带气旋 (TC) 相关的海洋表面波浪的长期变化仍然不太清楚.
- 现有的关于长时间TC波浪行为的数据有限.
研究的目的:
- 从1979年到2022年,分析热带气旋 (TC) 相关的海洋表面波的全球趋势.
- 量化TC波特征和能量转移的变化.
主要方法:
- 利用ERA5波浪再分析数据集进行全面的全球趋势分析.
- 检查了最大波高度,波足迹面积和波浪能量转移的十年变化.
主要成果:
- 观察到TC波浪的最大高度每十年大约增加3%,TC波浪足迹面积每十年增加6%.
- 记录了TC波浪能量转移到海洋的全球显著增加,约为9%/十年,是所有波浪的三倍.
- 发现波足迹区域的扩大是全球能源变化增加的主要驱动因素.
结论:
- 与TC相关的波浪危险在全球范围内显著增加.
- 这些观察到的波浪特性变化超过了TC最大风速的变化.
- 未来的气候预测和沿海管理战略必须考虑不断升级的TC波风险.
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