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它是东亚夏季干旱和洪水的平流层前体

Ruhua Zhang¹, Wen Zhou^2,3, Wenshou Tian⁴

¹Key Laboratory of Polar Atmosphere-ocean-ice System for Weather and Climate, Ministry of Education, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.

Nature communications

|January 3, 2024

概括

准双年振荡 (QBO) 显著预测了东亚夏季的洪水和干旱. 使用QBO的新模型提高了预测准确度,有助于预防灾害的努力.

科学领域:

气候学气候学气候学
大气科学大气科学
气象学天气学

背景情况:

东亚夏季的洪水和干旱表现出一个显著的南北双极模式 (SDNF).
这种模式在过去三十年中造成了相当大的经济损失和伤亡.
有效预测和解释SDNF模式仍然具有挑战性,阻碍了预防灾害.

研究的目的:

为了确定东亚夏季南部干旱-北部洪水 (SDNF) 双极模式的关键预测因素.
开发一种有效的统计模型,用于预测东亚夏季的洪水和干旱.
评估近两年振荡 (QBO) 对SDNF模式的贡献.

主要方法:

历史气候数据的统计分析.
开发一个包含近两年振荡 (QBO) 的预测模型.
量化QBO对SDNF模式变化的贡献.

主要成果:

准双年振荡 (QBO) 被确定为SDNF模式的关键预测因素.
QBO解释了SDNF模式中最大的变化.
包括QBO在内的统计模型预测夏季洪水和干旱的准确度超过75.8%,至少提前三个月.
在2020年和2021年7月至8月,QBO占SDNF模式的30%以上.

结论:

准双年振荡 (QBO) 在调节东亚夏季降水和SDNF模式方面发挥着至关重要的作用.
将QBO纳入统计模型显著提高了夏季洪水和干旱的预测.
热带中高层大气层,特别是QBO,显示出改善东亚季节性气候预报的巨大潜力.

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