整个系统的能源回报投资在可持续过渡到净零功率系统的可持续过渡
Hasret Sahin1, A A Solomon2, Arman Aghahosseini3
1School of Energy Systems, LUT University, Yliopistonkatu 34, 53850, Lappeenranta, Finland. hasret.sahin@lut.fi.
Nature communications
|January 3, 2024
概括
所有分析的全球能源转型场景都显示,在关键净能源悬崖以上,投资可行的净能源回报率 (EROI) 已达到关键净能源悬崖. 然而,增加可再生能源份额和快速过渡可能会降低EROI.
科学领域:
- 能源政策 能源政策
- 减缓气候变化减缓气候变化减缓
- 可持续的能源系统可持续的能源系统
背景情况:
- 格拉斯哥气候协定强调可再生能源,以实现净零排放.
- 评估能源转型途径的可信性对于最佳系统开发至关重要.
- 净能源效率是评估脱碳战略的一个关键指标.
研究的目的:
- 检查到2050年全球能源转型场景的净能源性能.
- 为了评估整个系统的能源投资回报率 (EROI) 在不同的脱碳途径.
- 在电力部门过渡期间确定影响 EROI 的因素.
主要方法:
- 应用一个新开发的全系统能源投资回报率 (EROI) 模型.
- 分析了九个截至2050年全球能源转型脱碳方案.
- 基于不同可再生能源份额和转型速度的EROI趋势预测.
主要成果:
- 所有分析的场景都预测,EROI高于关键的"净能源悬崖"门,大约为10.
- EROI趋势高度依赖于所选择的过渡途径.
- 增加可再生能源份额,特别是当需要重要的支持技术时,导致EROI的持续下降.
- 加快的过渡期会导致更快的EROI下降,在100%的可再生能源下稳定下来.
- 由化石燃料主导的系统由于天然气和石油耗尽而易受EROI下降的影响.
结论:
- 从净能源的角度来看,分析的全球能源转型场景是合理的.
- 过渡的速度和对支持技术的依赖对能源投资回报有重大影响.
- 未来的能源系统发展战略必须考虑可持续脱碳的EROI动态.
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