老年结肠直肠癌患者早期死亡的预测模型:基于人口的研究
Qi Wang1, Kexin Shen1, Bingyuan Fei1
1Department of Gastrointestinal Colorectal and Anal Surgery, China-Japan Union Hospital of Jilin University, Changchun, China.
Frontiers in oncology
|January 4, 2024
概括
这项研究确定了预测老年结直肠癌患者 (ECRC) 早期死亡的因素. 开发出来的诺姆图准确地预测了全因和癌症特异性死亡率,帮助ECRC做出临床决策.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 老年医学 老年医学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 老年结肠直肠癌 (ECRC) 患者面临着与早期死亡有关的独特挑战.
- 预测模型对于个性化治疗和改善临床决策至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 确定与老年结直肠癌患者 (ECRC) 早期死亡相关的变量.
- 在ECRC中开发和验证用于估计早期死亡风险的预测性名ograms.
主要方法:
- 从SEER (2010-2015年) 和中国队列中ECRC患者的回顾性队列分析.
- 后勤回归用于识别预后因素;使用ROC,校准曲线和DCA开发和验证nomogram.
主要成果:
- 种族,婚姻状况,瘤特征,疾病阶段,转移和治疗方式是ECRC早期死亡的独立预后因素.
- 创建了两种名录来预测所有原因和癌症特异性早期死亡,在内部和外部验证后显示出强大的预测准确性.
结论:
- 开发了用户友好的诺姆图,用于预测ECRC患者的早期死亡.
- 这些工具可以显著提高临床决策,并为老年结直肠癌患者个性化治疗策略.
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