基于降雨的极端现象的时空空间变异性及其对上甘指挥区农业的影响的综合分析
Dhananjay Paswan Das1, Kritika Kothari2, Ashish Pandey2
1Department of Water Resource Development & Management, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee, Uttarakhand, 24766, India. dp_das@wr.iitr.ac.in.
Environmental monitoring and assessment
|January 4, 2024
概括
印度农业 印度农业
科学领域:
- 农业气候学 农业气候学
- 水文学的水文学
- 气候变化影响评估 气候变化影响评估
背景情况:
- 印度的农业严重依赖季风降雨,需要对降雨模式进行分析以进行水资源管理.
- 了解时空降雨变化对于优化作物种植模式,灌和作物水生产率至关重要.
- 对印度降雨变化及其对农业的影响进行全面分析的研究有限.
研究的目的:
- 综合分析上甘指挥区 (UGCA) 降雨量和极端降水指数的时空变化.
- 评估这些降雨趋势对农业实践和弹性的影响.
- 为水资源管理者和政策制定者提供有关气候和农业关系的见解.
主要方法:
- 利用印度气象局 (IMD) 的长期 (1901-2021) 高分辨率的每日降雨格式数据.
- 应用了八个极端降雨指数来评估时空变化.
- 采用曼-惠特尼-佩蒂特测试来确定一个变化点 (1970年) 和修改的曼-肯达尔测试来分析1970年之前和之后的趋势.
主要成果:
- 在1970年左右确定了降雨模式的重大变化点.
- 从1901年到1970年,观察到降雨量增加的趋势,随后从1971年到2021年大幅减少,后期平均降水量减少了大约62毫米.
- 极端降水指数 (NxRainy,CWD,SDII,PRCPTOT) 从1901-1970年显示出上升趋势,从1971-2021年显示出显著下降趋势,与总降水量和地理因素 (度,海拔) 有着强烈的正相关.
结论:
- 该研究揭示了UGCA降雨模式和极端指数的显著变化,影响了农业生产率.
- 降雨趋势的下降和极端事件的变化给作物规划和水资源管理带来了挑战.
- 调查结果提供了关键信息,以增强农业的性,并在面对不断变化的气候模式时为政策决策提供信息.
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