阿根廷COVID-19住院死亡率的风险因素:一个竞争的风险生存分析
Sebastian Calonico1, Juan Cruz Lopez Del Valle2, Rafael Di Tella3,4
1Department of Health Policy and Management, Mailman School of Public Health, ColumbiaUniversity, NYC, New York, United States of America.
PLOS global public health
|January 5, 2024
概括
这项研究确定了中等收入国家阿根廷住院患者中COVID-19死亡率的关键风险因素. 竞争的风险模型显示,呼吸速率,老年和慢性病显著增加了死亡风险.
科学领域:
- 传染性疾病 传染性疾病
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 对于低收入和中等收入国家 (LMICs),COVID-19带来了重大挑战.
- 有限严格的,多中心证据存在于住院COVID-19患者的特征和LMICs的结果.
- 阿根廷是一个中等收入的拉丁美洲国家,受到大流行病的重大影响.
研究的目的:
- 调查阿根廷住院患者中与COVID-19死亡率相关的风险因素.
- 来自LMIC环境的强大,多中心数据为全球对COVID-19结果的理解做出贡献.
主要方法:
- 一项回顾性观察性描述性研究分析了来自阿根廷11个中心的5,146名COVID-19患者的数据.
- 从医疗记录中提取人口统计和并发症数据.
- 应用具有竞争风险 (例如,排放) 的生存模型.
主要成果:
- 入院患者的中位年龄为60岁,59.2%为男性.
- 流行并发症包括高血压 (40.9%),糖尿病 (20.0%) 和肥胖 (19.1%).
- 住院死亡率为18.1%,在各中心有显著差异. 关键的死亡预测因素包括呼吸率升高,年龄较大 (80岁以上) 和慢性病.
结论:
- 与标准的Cox模型相比,竞争的风险模型提供了更准确的COVID-19死亡风险因素评估.
- 这些发现为针对性医院内患者监测和LMIC风险分层提供了关键的见解.
- 该研究为阿根廷和类似发展中国家的公共卫生和政策干预提供了宝贵的指导.
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