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基于CMIP6的高分辨率气候预测数据集用于秘鲁和厄瓜多尔:BASD-CMIP6-PEPE
Carlos Antonio Fernandez-Palomino1,2, Fred F Hattermann3, Valentina Krysanova3
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, PO Box 60 12 03, D-14412, Potsdam, Germany. palomino@pik-potsdam.de.
Scientific data
|January 5, 2024
概括
为秘鲁和厄瓜多尔创建了一个新的高分辨率气候数据集,BASD-CMIP6-PE,使用偏差调整和统计缩小的气候预测. 这一可靠的数据集有助于评估气候变化对水资源和农业的影响.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 水文学的水文学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 在模拟区域气候模式时,来自合模型相互比较项目第6阶段 (CMIP6) 的全球气候模型 (GCM) 经常表现出偏差.
- 高分辨率的气候数据对于准确评估秘鲁和厄瓜多尔等脆弱地区的影响至关重要.
- 现有的气候数据集可能无法充分捕捉区域降水和温度变化的细微差别.
研究的目的:
- 为秘鲁和厄瓜多尔开发一个高分辨率 (10公里) 的气候数据集,命名为BASD-CMIP6-PE.
- 为历史和未来气候场景提供偏差调整和统计下调CMIP6 GCM预测.
- 评估区域气候建模的偏差调整和统计缩放 (BASD) 方法的性能.
主要方法:
- 采用趋势维护的偏差调整和统计缩放 (BASD) 方法来处理CMIP6 GCM输出.
- 创建了一个数据集,包括温度和降水的历史模拟 (1850-2014) 和未来预测 (2015-2100).
- 利用观测数据和水文建模来评估秘鲁和厄瓜多尔河流流域的性能.
主要成果:
- 该BASD方法显著减少了CMIP6 GCM模拟和观测数据之间的偏差.
- 调整后的数据准确地反映了长期的统计属性,包括平均值和极端值,以及季节性气候模式.
- 水文模型评估证实了调整后的GCM模拟对于流量预测 (平均,低,高流量) 的适用性.
结论:
- 巴斯德-CMIP6-PE数据集为秘鲁和厄瓜多尔的气候变化影响研究提供了可靠和高分辨率的资源.
- 经过验证的BASD方法提高了GCM输出对于区域气候研究和适应规划的有用性.
- 这一数据集对于农业,水资源管理和减少灾害风险等领域的知情决策至关重要.
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