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一项关于在大断水灾时设置紧急避难所的研究,考虑到人口分布和天气影响
Yutie Jiao1, Zongkun Li1, Wei Ge2
1School of Water Conservancy and Transportation, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, PR China; Yellow River Laboratory, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, PR China.
The Science of the total environment
|January 6, 2024
概括
准确的紧急避难所选择大破裂洪水需要考虑细度的人口分布和极端天气对避难所容量和可访问性的影响. 这项研究开发了一个模型,以优化避难所的位置,以改善灾害准备.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 灾害管理 灾害管理
- 地理信息系统 (GIS) 是指地理信息系统.
背景情况:
- 由于极端天气而导致的水故障对下游人口构成重大风险.
- 有效的紧急避难所对于减少大破裂洪水中的伤亡至关重要.
- 之前的避难所定位研究缺乏精细的人口数据和对极端天气影响的考虑.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种精细的方法来选择紧急避难所,考虑到详细的人口分布和与天气有关的避难所可访问性.
- 提高估计受影响人口的准确性和庇护所定位结果的适用性.
主要方法:
- 使用土地利用和土地覆盖变化 (LUCC) 和夜间照明数据来模拟人口分布.
- 根据正常和极端降雨条件下的有效容量和可访问性,对候选避难所进行了选.
- 使用非主导排序遗传算法II (NSGA-II) 开发了一种多目标定位模型,以优化庇护所选择.
主要成果:
- 人口模拟实现了11.16%的平均相对误差 (MRE),准确地反映了分布.
- 正常天气产生了352个候选避难所;极端降雨使这一数字减少到266.
- 在63至131个避难所中选择了四个场景,证明了人口和天气因素的重大影响.
结论:
- 人口的细微分布和极端天气极大地影响了紧急庇护所的选择和疏散人员的分配.
- 开发的模型提供了一种更准确和适用的方法,用于用于防失效洪水准备的庇护所.
- 整合人口动态和天气影响对于有效减少灾害风险至关重要.
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