与COPD发展相关的潜在COPD前指标和中文COPD预测模型:一个前性队列研究
Jing Fan1,2, Liwen Fang1, Shu Cong1
1National Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 27 Nanwei Road, Xicheng District, Beijing 100050, China.
慢性支气管炎和小呼吸道功能障碍等COPD前的指标显著增加了COPD风险. 结合这些因素的新预测模型为早期COPD检测提供了一个全面的工具.
科学领域:
- 肺部医学 肺部医学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 呼吸系统健康 呼吸系统健康
背景情况:
- 肺部损伤可能会先于慢性阻塞性肺病 (COPD) 的发展.
- 一个明确的定义的明确的定义.
- 在COPD前的情况.
- 和预测模型目前缺乏.
研究的目的:
- 为了确定COPD前的指标.
- 开发一个COPD发展的预测模型.
主要方法:
- 3526名没有COPD的中国成年人接受了3.59年的随访.
- 研究了慢性支气管炎,PRISm,低PEF,sSAD,低MMEF,低FEF50,低FEF75和随后的COPD之间的关联.
- 使用LASSO-Cox回归构建了一个COPD预测模型.
主要成果:
- PRISm,低PEF,sSAD,低MMEF,低FEF50和低FEF75增加了COPD风险 (HR 1.57至3.01).这些因素都可能导致慢性肺炎.
- 慢性支气管炎和sSAD/低MMEF显示出独立的效应.
- 包括年龄,性别,低MMEF,低FEF50和室内生物质暴露在内的预测模型显示出良好的预测性能 (C指数0.77,AUC0.73).
结论:
- 同时的慢性支气管炎和sSAD/低MMEF表明COPD前,需要医生的注意.
- 开发的预测模型可以全面预测COPD风险.
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