时间数据聚合的作用,以评估欧洲气温变化的影响:一项流行病学建模研究
Joan Ballester1, Kim Robin van Daalen2, Zhao-Yue Chen1,3
1ISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain.
The Lancet regional health. Europe
|January 8, 2024
概括
每周的数据可以大致估计每天的温度死亡效应,低估了分别8.56%和21.56%的寒冷和热死亡. 这种方法有助于研究有限的日常健康记录.
科学领域:
- 环境流行病学环境流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 时间序列分析 时间序列分析
背景情况:
- 每日时间序列回归模型是估计温度-死亡率关系的标准.
- 由于对日常健康记录的访问受到限制,这些分析受到阻碍.
- 每周和每月的数据提供了一个尚未探索的替代方案.
研究的目的:
- 评估使用汇总的每周和每月数据与温度死亡率分析的每日数据的准确性.
- 评估使用较少细粒度数据用于公共卫生研究和政策的可行性.
主要方法:
- 使用了来自147个欧洲地区 (超过4亿人) 的每日温度和死亡率数据.
- 准松回归模型应用于每日数据,并与汇总的每周和每月数据的结果进行比较.
- 分析的重点是估计与寒冷和热量相关的死亡关系.
主要成果:
- 流行病学估计显示,随着数据聚合的增加,差异越来越大.
- 每周的模型低估了每年的寒冷和热相关死亡率,分别为8.56%和21.56%.
- 在2003年夏天等极端事件期间,每周模型的低估值较小 (4.62%).
结论:
- 每周的时间序列可以作为对死亡率短期寒冷和热的影响的有效近似.
- 这种方法可以通过克服数据访问限制来促进研究和政策制定.
- 预计到2022年,欧洲与高温相关的死亡率可能已超过7万例.
相关概念视频
Global Climate Change
24.4K
Throughout its ~4.5 billion year history, the Earth has experienced periods of warming and cooling. However, the current drastic increase in global temperatures is well outside of the Earth’s cyclic norms, and evidence for human-caused global climate change is compelling. Paleoclimatology, the study of ancient climate conditions, provides ample evidence for human-caused global climate change by comparing recent conditions with those in the past.
24.4K
What is Climate?
18.6K
Climate refers to the prevailing weather conditions in a specific area over an extended period. As the saying goes, “Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.” Climate is influenced by geographic factors, such as latitude, terrain, and proximity to bodies of water.
18.6K
Steps in Outbreak Investigation
131
In the ever-evolving field of public health, statistical analysis serves as a cornerstone for understanding and managing disease outbreaks. By leveraging various statistical tools, health professionals can predict potential outbreaks, analyze ongoing situations, and devise effective responses to mitigate impact. For that to happen, there are a few possible stages of the analysis:
131
Factors Affecting Body Temperature
4.2K
As a nurse, it is vital to understand the factors affecting body temperature to monitor variations and effectively evaluate deviations from regular.
Factors may include:
Factors may include:
4.2K
Responses to Heat and Cold Stress
13.5K
Every organism has an optimum temperature range within which healthy growth and physiological functioning can occur. At the ends of this range, there will be a minimum and maximum temperature that interrupt biological processes.
13.5K
Temperature Measurement Sites
1.7K
A thermometer measures body temperature. The common sites for measuring body temperature are the oral cavity, axillary region, temporal artery, and skin surface, such as the forehead, abdomen, and axilla. True core body temperature is assessed in the rectum, tympanic membrane, pulmonary artery, esophagus, and urinary bladder.
Oral: When assessing oral temperature, the thermometer tip should be placed under the tongue in the posterior sublingual pocket. It offers accurate readings and can be...
Oral: When assessing oral temperature, the thermometer tip should be placed under the tongue in the posterior sublingual pocket. It offers accurate readings and can be...
1.7K


