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在运输过程中从瓶子中意外释放和紧急应对计划:基于场景的研究

Mohammad Reza Fallah Ghanbari¹, Zohre Ghomian²

¹Department of Health in Disasters and Emergencies, School of Public Health and Safety, Shahid Beheshty University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.

Journal of emergency management (Weston, Mass.)

|January 8, 2024

概括

意外的气释放在城市地区构成重大风险. 这项研究使用事件树分析和后果建模来评估危险,在192米以内发现99%的伤亡风险,并突出了应急响应的挑战.

科学领域:

环境科学环境科学
风险评估风险评估
城市规划城市规划

背景情况:

在运输过程中意外释放的危险物质,如气,对城市人口构成重大风险.
制定有效的应急响应计划对于减轻此类事件的影响至关重要.

研究的目的:

分析城市环境中意外排放气的潜在危害.
制定和评估应急响应计划,以减轻这些危险.

主要方法:

使用事件树分析 (ETA) 来识别潜在的事故场景及其结果.
使用植物遗传学分析与空间/时间 (PHAST) 软件的后果建模被用于模拟气的传播和影响.
进行了头脑风暴会议,以告知应急响应计划过程.

主要成果:

事件树分析确定了气释放场景的32个初始和20个最终发生的路径.
据估计,疏散时间大约为41秒,这被认为是有效反应的关键时间.
估计有很高的伤亡概率:99%在140-192m内,50%在202-599m内,1%在释放地点758m内.

结论:

结合后果建模和ETA在应急准备和风险评估方面是有效的.
在事故期间控制气释放的来源可能是不可行的.
在德黑兰等主要城市中心,气的运输和使用对安全和应急管理构成重大挑战.

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