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气候迁移放大了人口变化和人口老龄化
Mathew E Hauer1,2, Sunshine A Jacobs1,2, Scott A Kulp3
1Department of Sociology, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306.
概括
由海平面上升驱动的气候迁移可能会大大放大人口变化,加快沿海地区的老龄化. 这项研究模拟了这些人口影响,预计到2100年美国人口分布将发生重大变化.
科学领域:
- 环境科学环境科学
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 气候变化研究的研究.
背景情况:
- 科学文献在20世纪70年代首次警告气候迁移,原因是冰盖解体和沿海城市的影响.
- 以前的气候迁移模型往往排除了人口统计过程,可能低估了迁移放大和人口老龄化影响.
研究的目的:
- 调查海平面上升 (SLR) 下的气候迁移及其人口扩大.
- 检查气候迁移对原产区人口老龄化的影响.
- 为了预测美国人口分布的变化,县由于SLR.
主要方法:
- 结合矩阵人口模型,洪水危险模型和基于40年美国环境迁移数据的迁移模型.
- 根据各种代表性度路径-共享社会经济路径 (RCP-SSP) 场景,美国人口在各县的预计分布.
- 分析了由于气候迁移而导致的人口减少和中位数年龄增加之间的关系.
主要成果:
- 预计SLR的人口扩大将显著增加移民人数,从基线估计的5.3到18倍 (0.4-10万移民).
- 沿海地区预计将经历显著的人口老龄化,因为年轻的人口迁移,留下老年居民.
- 在受严重影响的沿海县,随着气候迁移造成的人口损失的百分比上升,平均年龄可能会增加超过10年.
结论:
- 气候迁移,特别是由于SLR,可能会导致大量的人口扩张,并加速脆弱的沿海地区的人口老龄化.
- 开发的建模方法为调查人口分布上的额外或多重气候危险提供了一个框架.
- 了解这些人口变化对于有效的气候适应和政策规划至关重要.
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