从2000年到2020年,估计中国成年人吸烟导致的肺癌死亡率:三种方法的比较
Feiling Ai1, Jian Zhao1, Wenyi Yang1
1Institute of Basic Medical Sciences, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences/School of Basic Medicine, Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, 100005, China.
BMC cancer
|January 9, 2024
概括
在中国,吸烟是导致肺癌死亡的重要原因. 剂量反应方法虽然数据密集,但最好估计吸烟导致的肺癌死亡率,显示2000年至2020年间的大幅增加.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 癌症研究 癌症研究
背景情况:
- 吸烟是中国的主要公共卫生问题,导致成人肺癌死亡率.
- 这项研究量化了2000年至2020年间中国因吸烟而导致的肺癌死亡人数.
研究的目的:
- 从2000年到2020年,估计中国的吸烟导致的肺癌死亡率.
- 为了比较三个不同的估计方法:滞后吸烟率,Peto-Lopez和剂量反应关系.
主要方法:
- 人口归因分数 (PAFs) 用三个不同的方法计算.
- 关于吸烟暴露和相对风险的数据来源于国家调查和元分析.
- 估计是按特定年份的性别和年龄分层的 (2000年,2005年,2010年,2015年,2020年).
主要成果:
- 剂量反应方法产生了最高的PAF (47-58%),与滞后患病率 (45-47%) 和Peto-Lopez (46-47%) 方法相比.
- 在所有方法中,男性的PAF总比女性高.
- 据估计,吸烟导致的肺癌死亡人数从2000年的约134,100人增加到2020年的30万多人.
结论:
- 剂量反应方法提供了更准确的反映吸烟对肺癌死亡率的影响.
- 准确的参数估计和高质量的数据对于可靠的PAF计算至关重要.
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