一个新的多区域碳排放预测模型,基于多变量信息融合机制和混合时空图形卷积网络
Zhen Shao1, Shina Gao2, Kaile Zhou3
1School of Management, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei, 230009, China; Key Laboratory of Process Optimization and Intelligent Decision-making, Ministry of Education, Hefei, Anhui, 230009, China; Philosophy and Social Sciences Laboratory of Data Science and Smart Society Governance, Hefei University of Technology, Ministry of Education, Hefei, 230009, China.
Journal of environmental management
|January 10, 2024
概括
本研究引入了一个新的图形学习框架,用于准确的短期碳排放预测 (CEP). 混合模型显著提高了趋势预测的准确性,有助于有效的减排政策.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
- 机器学习 机器学习
背景情况:
- 准确的碳排放趋势预测对于有效的减排政策至关重要.
- 复杂的时空相关性和多种不同的影响因素挑战了多区域碳排放建模.
- 现有的模型在与区域碳排放的复杂动态作斗争.
研究的目的:
- 为短期碳排放预测 (CEP) 开发一个新的图形学习框架.
- 引入基于图形的混合动态和静态网络,以提高预测准确度.
- 研究先进的深度学习模型在捕获复杂的排放模式方面的有效性.
主要方法:
- 一个混合框架,将属性增强的动态多模态图卷积神经网络 (ADMGCN) 和时间卷积网络与自适应融合多尺度受体场 (AFMRFTCN) 结合起来.
- 利用图形学习建立区域碳排放网络,整合动态和静态图形属性.
- 对19个先进的模型进行评估,使用来自中国30个地区的每日碳排放数据.
主要成果:
- 与最好的基线模型相比,拟议的模型实现了平均绝对百分比误差 (MAPE) 的20.19%降低,特别是在周期性较高的地区.
- 图形卷积神经网络 (GCNs) 有效提取受地理,经济和工业因素影响的空间特征.
- 平行的ADMGCN-AFMRFTCNs框架通过整合外部信息和减轻单变量数据限制,提高了预测准确性.
- 短期碳排放增长率的区域差异很大,河南为37.38%,贵州为-7.46%.
结论:
- 混合图表学习框架为短期碳排放预测提供了一种优越的方法.
- 整合动态和静态图表特征可以提高对碳排放空间依赖性的理解.
- 该模型将多模式信息纳入的能力导致更强大,更准确的预测.
- 调查结果为有针对性的政策干预和区域减缓战略提供了宝贵的见解.
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