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昆虫范围动态的生态预测:广泛的类型包括未来气候下赢家和输家
Naresh Neupane1, Elise A Larsen1, Leslie Ries1
1Georgetown University, Department of Biology, Washington, DC 20057, USA.
Current opinion in insect science
|January 10, 2024
概括
物种分布模型预测未来的物种范围,但面临着数据挑战. 模型显示物种转移到较冷的地区,有害昆虫比有益的昆虫受益更多.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 计算生物学 计算生物学
背景情况:
- 物种分布模型 (SDM) 对于预测物种范围将如何变化至关重要.
- 当前的SDM实践往往受数据可用性和验证方法的限制.
- 验证环境数据层的最佳实践并未得到一致的应用.
研究的目的:
- 评估物种分布建模的现状和局限性.
- 为了确定预测物种分布转移的趋势.
- 突出在生态建模中需要改进的领域.
主要方法:
- 审查了53项采用物种分布模型的研究.
- 评估这些研究是否符合目前数据验证的最佳实践.
- 分析了物种分布的预测变化,重点关注气候驱动的变化.
主要成果:
- 大多数研究使用相关模型,缺乏对环境数据的严格验证.
- 预计的分布显示了向较冷地区的总体趋势.
- 有害的昆虫物种比有益的昆虫物种更有可能经历积极的范围结果.
结论:
- 最佳实践的不一致应用限制了当前SDM的可靠性.
- 生态和生理机制需要进一步研究以改善模型解释.
- 未来的研究应该将经典的实地和实验室研究与先进的建模技术相结合.
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