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人类影响北半球降雪的证据
Alexander R Gottlieb1,2, Justin S Mankin3,4,5
1Graduate Program in Ecology, Evolution, Environment and Society, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, USA. alexander.r.gottlieb.gr@dartmouth.edu.
Nature
|January 10, 2024
概括
人类造成的气候变暖正在减少北半球的积雪. 随着气候变暖的加剧, 尤其在人口密的地区,
科学领域:
- 气候科学
- 水文学
- 环境科学
背景情况:
- 雪地损失的记录对于气候变化和水资源安全管理至关重要.
- 之前的观察不确定性阻碍了人类造成的降雪损失的检测和归因.
研究的目的:
- 证明人类造成的气候变暖导致北半球积雪量下降.
- 分析它们对温度的敏感性.
主要方法:
- 使用雪地重建组合来分析1981-2020年的趋势.
- 应用归因方法来确定北半球河流盆地的雪地变化的人类影响.
主要成果:
- 人类引起的气候变暖已经减少了北半球3月份的积雪 (1981-2020年).
- 在169个河流盆地中的82个发现了显著的降雪趋势,其中31个被确定为人类的影响.
- 揭示了积雪的非线性温度敏感性,在冬季温度低于-8°C之后,损失会加快.
结论:
- 随着近期的气候变暖, 人类造成的降雪损失将会加快.
- 非线性温度敏感性解释了过去的趋势,并预测了未来的水安全风险.
- 需要大幅度减缓气候变化,以避免对水资源造成严重影响.
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