在中国,能源摄入量是如何变化的? 一个生命周期的视角
Guojing Li1,2, Yulin Li3, Qiyou Luo1
1Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China.
Nutrients
|January 11, 2024
概括
中国的出生率下降和人口老龄化显著影响了粮食需求. 根据这些人口变化和生命周期变化,调整能源摄入预测对于粮食安全政策至关重要.
科学领域:
- 人口统计分析 人口统计分析
- 营养科学 营养科学
- 粮食安全政策 粮食安全政策
背景情况:
- 中国人口的特点是儿童数量减少和人口老龄化.
- 这些人口变化对国家和全球的粮食和营养需求有深远的长期影响.
- 了解家庭能量摄入的动态对于准确预测食品需求至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 量化人口结构变化对中国能源消耗的影响.
- 揭示中国居民整个生命周期的能量摄入变化的特征.
- 通过考虑人口趋势,为粮食和营养安全政策提供信息.
主要方法:
- 在能量摄入模型中引入成人等效量表 (AES) 变量.
- 人口结构对能源摄入量影响的量化.
- 分析不同年龄组和生命阶段的能量摄入模式.
主要成果:
- 人口结构的变化显著影响中国城市家庭的能源消耗 (弹性为0.446).
- 老年人 (60岁以上) 在65岁之前的能量摄入量达到顶峰,这表明老龄化可能会减少食物消费.
- 特定年龄组 (1-10岁的儿童,22-30岁和40-45岁的女性) 的能量摄入量下降,然后增加,这可能与照顾儿童和身体尺寸管理有关.
结论:
- 经过AES调整以能源消耗为准的平均家庭规模为2.341,小于以人口为基础的3.052.
- 粮食和营养需求的预测必须根据"儿童减少"和"老龄化"的趋势进行调整.
- 考虑到生命周期能量摄入量的变化对于有效的粮食和营养安全政策至关重要.
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