对于具有三源可变性的二相非线性降解系统的剩余有用寿命预测
Xuemiao Cui1, Jiping Lu1, Yafeng Han1
1School of Mechanical Engineering, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China.
Sensors (Basel, Switzerland)
|January 11, 2024
概括
本研究引入了一种新的模型,通过考虑时间,单位对单位和测量变化来预测降解设备的剩余使用寿命 (RUL). 同时纳入所有三个变量对于准确的RUL预测至关重要.
科学领域:
- 可靠性工程可靠性工程
- 降解建模的降解建模
- 预测性维护是指预测性维护.
背景情况:
- 剩余使用寿命 (RUL) 估计对于运营安全至关重要.
- 现有的模型部分解决了时间,单位对单位和测量的变化.
- 对于双相非线性降解系统,需要采用全面的方法.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个两相非线性降解模型,结合三个可变性来源.
- 根据这些变量,推导出RUL估计的分析解决方案.
- 用数字和现实世界的数据来验证拟议的模型.
主要方法:
- 非线性维纳过程用于模拟降解.
- 第一次通道时间 (FPT) 对于 RUL 溶液导出.
- 离线参数估计的最大概率估计 (MLE).
- 用卡尔曼过 (KF) 来进行在线模型更新的贝叶斯规则.
主要成果:
- 获得了RUL的近似分析解决方案,具有三种来源的可变性.
- 离线和在线方法成功地用于参数估计和模型更新.
- 验证证实了同时考虑所有三种变量的必要性.
结论:
- 拟议的模型有效地估计了双相非线性降解系统的RUL.
- 同时考虑时间,单位和测量变量的同时考虑对于准确的RUL预测至关重要.
- 这种方法提高了退化系统的可靠性和安全性.
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