未来气候变化对巴基斯坦保护区网络的风险:针对热点识别的综合分析
Muhammad Taimur Siddique1, Jorge García Molinos2
1Graduate School of Environmental Science, Hokkaido University, N10W5, Kita-ku, Sapporo, Hokkaido, Japan 060-0810.
The Science of the total environment
|January 11, 2024
概括
气候变化对巴基斯坦的保护区 (PA) 构成重大风险,其中一些在2080年面临极端威胁. 然而,保护区通常比未受保护的土地提供更好的保护,突出显示了未来保护扩张的区域.
科学领域:
- 保护科学 保护科学
- 气候变化 生态学 生态学
- 生物多样性研究 生物多样性研究
背景情况:
- 气候变化是全球生态系统退化和生物多样性丧失的主要驱动因素.
- 保护区 (PAs) 对保护至关重要,全球目标是到2030年将覆盖率扩大到30%.
- 评估PAs对气候变化影响的有效性对于保护成功至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估巴基斯坦现有保护区 (PA) 和非受保护土地的气候变化风险.
- 评估409种物种在本世纪中后期对气候变化的暴露和脆弱性.
- 根据气候风险,确定扩大巴基斯坦的电力机构网络的潜在领域.
主要方法:
- 关于当地气候暴露和鸟类,哺乳动物,爬行动物和两动物的物种脆弱性的综合数据.
- 根据两个排放场景 (RCP4.5和RCP8.5) 对2040-2060年中期和2061-2080年后期的气候变化影响进行建模.
- 评估了巴基斯坦现有保护区和非保护区内的风险水平.
主要成果:
- 到2080年,巴基斯坦7%至19%的地区将面临极端气候变化风险,特别是在东部和东南部.
- 预计PA内的风险热点随着时间的推移和排放严重程度的增加而扩大.
- 巴基斯坦北部的PAs预计将保持中等到低风险.
- 与未受保护的土地相比,保护区的气候变化风险始终较低.
结论:
- 巴基斯坦的PAs提供了重要的,尽管是可变的,对气候变化影响的保护.
- 未来的PA网络扩张应考虑确定具有较低预计气候风险的地区.
- 有效的保护规划需要将气候变化脆弱性评估纳入PA管理和扩展战略.
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