基于贝叶斯网络和N-K模型的起重机事故风险的合分析
Bang-Jie Wu1,2, Liang-Hai Jin3,4, Xia-Zhong Zheng5,6
1Hubei Key Laboratory of Construction and Management in Hydropower Engineering, China Three Gorges University, Yichang, 443002, China. wubangjie@ctgu.edu.cn.
Scientific reports
|January 11, 2024
概括
起重机事故带来了重大的风险. 本研究介绍了一种使用贝叶斯网络和N-K模型分析人,机器,管理和环境因素的定量方法,揭示了人与管理要素的关键. 了解这些相互作用可以提高建筑安全.
科学领域:
- 建筑安全工程工程 建筑安全工程
- 风险管理 风险管理
- 事故分析 事故分析
背景情况:
- 起重机操作在建筑中至关重要,但具有很高的事故风险.
- 有效的事故预防需要了解风险因素之间的复杂相互作用.
- 现有的方法可能无法完全捕捉人类,机器,管理和环境影响的相互作用.
研究的目的:
- 为分析起重机事故风险提出量化合方法.
- 研究人类,机器,管理和环境因素之间的相互作用.
- 通过改进风险评估,提高提升操作的安全性.
主要方法:
- 使用文本挖掘和故障树分析来识别和分类风险因素.
- 开发与N-K模型集成的贝叶斯网络 (BN) 模型,用于风险合分析.
- 定义风险合的类型并量化其影响.
- 应用后置概率和灵敏度分析来评估故障概率.
主要成果:
- 确定人类和管理因素对起重机事故有重大影响.
- 证明了多种风险因素的相互作用对于确定事故概率至关重要.
- 使用BN和NK模型量化了各种风险因素的合效应.
结论:
- 人类和管理因素需要在起重机安全协议中高度关注.
- 拟议的定量合方法为分析复杂的起重机事故风险提供了一个强大的框架.
- 对风险因素相互作用的全面理解对于有效预防建筑事故至关重要.
相关概念视频
One-Compartment Open Model: Wagner-Nelson and Loo Riegelman Method for ka Estimation
513
This lesson introduces two critical methods in pharmacokinetics, the Wagner-Nelson and Loo-Riegelman methods, used for estimating the absorption rate constant (ka) for drugs administered via non-intravenous routes. The Wagner-Nelson method relates ka to the plasma concentration derived from the slope of a semilog percent unabsorbed time plot. However, it is limited to drugs with one-compartment kinetics and can be impacted by factors like gastrointestinal motility or enzymatic degradation.
On...
On...
513
Frames: Problem Solving I
480
Consider a jib crane with an external load suspended from the pulley. The dimensions of the crane members are shown in the figure. A systematic analysis of the frame structure is required to determine the reaction forces at the pin joints, assuming that the pulleys are frictionless.
480
Hazard Rate
112
The hazard rate, also known as the hazard function or failure rate, is a statistical measure used to describe the instantaneous rate at which an event occurs, given that the event has not yet happened. From a probabilistic perspective, it represents the likelihood that a subject will experience the event in a very small time interval, conditional on surviving up to the beginning of that interval. In terms of frequency, the hazard rate can be viewed as the ratio of the number of events to the...
112
Simplified Synchronous Machine Model
234
The Synchronous Machine Model is a fundamental tool in analyzing and ensuring the transient stability of power systems. This model simplifies the representation of a synchronous machine under balanced three-phase positive-sequence conditions, assuming constant excitation and ignoring losses and saturation. The model is pivotal for understanding the behavior of synchronous generators connected to a power grid, particularly during transient events.
In this model, each generator is connected to a...
In this model, each generator is connected to a...
234
Node Analysis for AC Circuits
321
Consider an angioplasty system featuring a catheter equipped with a turbine, a critical tool for removing plaque deposits from coronary arteries. This intricate medical device operates using a circuit model reminiscent of a dual-node RLC circuit powered by a current-controlled voltage source.
To unravel the complexities of this system, nodal analysis is employed, a powerful technique founded on Kirchhoff's current law (KCL), which remains valid for phasors. AC circuits can effectively be...
To unravel the complexities of this system, nodal analysis is employed, a powerful technique founded on Kirchhoff's current law (KCL), which remains valid for phasors. AC circuits can effectively be...
321
Sequence Networks of Rotating Machines
103
A Y-connected synchronous generator, grounded through a neutral impedance, is designed to produce balanced internal phase voltages with only positive-sequence components. The generator's sequence networks include a source voltage that is exclusively in the positive-sequence network. The sequence components of line-to-ground voltages at the generator terminals illustrate this configuration.
Zero-sequence current induces a voltage drop across the generator's neutral impedance and other...
Zero-sequence current induces a voltage drop across the generator's neutral impedance and other...
103


