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使用输入-输出分析量化城市淹水的直接和间接影响
Keling Liu1, Saige Wang1, Bin Chen1
1State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China.
Journal of environmental management
|January 12, 2024
概括
城市淹水造成重大经济和环境损失,间接影响远远超过直接影响. 这项研究提供了一个框架来评估这些级联效应,以更好地管理灾害风险.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 城市规划 城市规划
- 灾害管理 灾害管理
背景情况:
- 城市淹水灾害正在增加,造成了巨大的社会和经济损失.
- 目前的指标未能捕捉到不同降雨强度和区域效应的全部经济和生态影响.
- 有效的城市灾害风险管理需要对总体经济影响进行全面评估.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个综合评估框架来分析城市水淹没损失,包括直接的经济,间接的经济和环境影响.
- 评估这些影响的空间和工业异质性及其溢出效应.
- 为决策者提供数据驱动的见解,以加强城市淹水灾害预防和减缓战略.
主要方法:
- 在北京使用InfoWorks ICM模型模拟城市淹水灾害风险.
- 量化直接经济损失和评估环境影响.
- 通过输入-输出分析估计间接经济损失,并探索区域间溢出效应.
主要成果:
- 直接的经济和环境损失随着回报期的延长而增加,显示出协同趋势和空间异质性.
- 间接经济影响是直接影响的2.43倍,基础设施损坏造成了明显的连锁效应.
- 观察到区域间影响的重大工业和空间异质性,特别影响东部省份.
结论:
- 开发的框架有效地评估了城市淹水造成的多方面的经济和环境影响.
- 间接损失和级联影响是灾难总影响的关键组成部分,需要综合风险管理方法.
- 绘制损失传输路径的地图有助于政策制定者制定针对城市淹水灾害的有针对性的缓解策略.
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