与低温有关的下呼吸道感染的全球负担研究:从1990年到2019年的分析
1Institute of Occupational Health and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu, 730000, People's Republic of China.
Environmental science and pollution research international
|January 13, 2024
概括
从1990年到2019年,全球低温作为下呼吸道感染 (LRI) 的风险因素显著下降. 减轻负担在中级社会人口指数地区和北极气候中最为明显,尽管婴儿和老年人仍然很容易受到伤害.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 全球健康 全球健康
背景情况:
- 低温与对下呼吸道感染 (LRI) 的易感性增加有关.
- 考虑到各种社会人口指数 (SDIs) 和气候类型,与低温相关的LRIs的全球疾病负担尚不清楚.
- 了解这些趋势对于公共卫生干预和资源分配至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 从1990年到2019年,检查204个国家和地区的低温造成的LRI负担的时空变化.
- 分析按性别,年龄,国家,气候类型和SDI分层的趋势.
- 使用年龄期和队列模型预测未来的趋势.
主要方法:
- 全球疾病负担研究2019数据的回顾性分析.
- 估计因年龄标准化的死亡率 (ASMR) 和因年龄标准化的残疾调整寿命年率 (ASDR) 对于与低温相关的LRIs.
- 用于趋势分析 (1990-2019) 的joinpoint回归和用于预测 (2020-2044) 的Poisson年龄期和队列模型.
- 一般化添加混合模型和高斯过程回归用于气候和SDI特定分析.
主要成果:
- 从1990年到2019年,由于低温导致的LRI负担在全球范围内显著减少 (ASMR下降了60.27%,ASDR下降了77.5%).
- 婴儿,老年人,北极气候和中部SDI地区的下降最明显.
- 在拉丁美洲南部 (AAPC:0.5) 观察到温度归因的LRIs的ASMR增加.
- 2019年,全球ASMR为2.2个,ASDR为每10万人口中的53.73个.
结论:
- 在过去的三十年中,低温作为全球LRI的环境风险因素已经减少.
- 尽管总体下降,但与低温相关的LRIs仍然是弱势群体 (婴儿,老年人) 和特定地区的担忧.
- 持续监测和有针对性的干预措施是必要的,特别是在经历增长趋势的地区.
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