在初级保健群体中IberScore模型的验证
Carlos Fernández-Labandera Ramos1, Irene Moral2, Carlos Brotons2
1Dirección de Gestión del Conocimiento y la Innovación, Ibermutua, MATEPSS 274, Madrid, Spain.
概括
艾伯斯科尔心血管风险模型准确地预测了初级保健患者的风险,但往往会高估它. 这项验证研究证实了其辨别能力,同时指出了校准问题.
科学领域:
- 心脏病学 心脏病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 心血管疾病 (CVD) 仍然是全球主要的死亡原因.
- 准确的风险评估对于初级预防策略至关重要.
- 艾伯斯科尔模型是一种用于估计10年心血管疾病风险的工具.
研究的目的:
- 为了验证IberScore心血管风险模型的预测性能.
- 评估模型在初级保健群体中的校准和歧视.
- 为了评估模型的准确性,按性别分层.
主要方法:
- 选择了10,085名没有先前心血管疾病的初级保健患者队列.
- 使用IberScore公式计算心血管风险.
- 模型校准和歧视 (ROC曲线下的区域) 在10年的随访期内进行了评估.
主要成果:
- 伊伯斯科尔 (IberScore) 模型表现出良好的歧视性,ROC曲线下的面积值为男性0.86,女性0.82.
- 男性的10年心血管疾病风险高 (17.07%) 和估计的血管年龄比生物年龄高4年.
- 妇女的平均10年风险为7.91%,估计血管年龄比生物年龄高2年以上.
结论:
- 艾伯斯科尔 (IberScore) 模型显示,初级保健机构具有强大的歧视能力.
- 该研究表明,IberScore模型通常高估了心血管风险.
- 校准调整可能是必要的,以准确预测这个群体的风险.
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