结肠直肠癌及其可归因的风险因素在东亚,1990-2030年
Jian Zhang1,2, Shijie Zhu3, Chunlong Liu4
1Department of Neurosurgery, Shengjing Hospital of China Medical University, Shenyang, China.
Journal of gastroenterology and hepatology
|January 15, 2024
概括
结肠直肠癌死亡率在东亚发展中国家上升,但在高收入国家下降,尽管整体疾病负担仍然很大. 未来的预测表明,中国的经济增长令人担忧.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 在瘤学瘤学.
背景情况:
- 结肠直肠癌 (CRC) 在东亚造成了严重的疾病负担.
- 东亚CRC负担的流行病学特征需要进行系统的研究.
研究的目的:
- 分析东亚结直肠癌死亡率的长期趋势.
- 预测到2030年该地区结直肠癌的未来负担.
主要方法:
- 利用了2019年全球疾病负担计划的数据.
- 采用joinpoint分析用于趋势识别和年龄周期队列模型用于效果分析和预测.
- 应用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列建模用于未来负担预测.
主要成果:
- 结肠直肠癌死亡率的趋势有所不同:中国大陆和台湾的死亡率上升,日本在1990-2019年期间的死亡率下降.
- 可归因风险因素保持稳定,但代谢因素构成未来风险.
- 中国的年龄标准化死亡率 (ASDR) 预计到2030年将超过日本和韩国.
结论:
- 在东亚发展中国家,结肠直肠癌的死亡率正在增加,而在高收入国家,死亡率正在下降.
- 尽管下降,但高收入东亚国家的疾病负担仍然很大.
- 代谢因素对该地区未来结直肠癌风险的担忧越来越大.
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