使用随机森林算法的道路安全事故严重性预测建模:对印度高速公路的分析
Humera Khanum1,2, Anshul Garg1, Mir Iqbal Faheem3
1School of Civil Engineering, Lovely Professional University, Phagwara, Punjab, 1444411, India.
F1000Research
|January 15, 2024
概括
这项研究使用随机森林模型来预测印度高速公路上的交通事故严重程度. 该模型在培训数据上实现了67%的准确性,但在测试数据上仅达到41.47%,这表明了潜在的数据集问题.
科学领域:
- 道路安全研究 道路安全研究
- 交通运输中的人工智能
- 机器学习用于事故分析.
背景情况:
- 道路交通事故每年导致全球超过135万人死亡,印度承受着相当大的负担.
- 2019年,印度记录了449,002起道路交通事故,造成151,113人死亡,451,361人受伤.
- 事故严重程度建模对于识别风险因素和告知预防措施至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发印度高速公路交通事故严重程度的预测模型.
- 应用随机森林算法以提高预测准确度.
- 使用机器学习分析导致事故严重程度的因素.
主要方法:
- 从MoRTH和NHAI收集和预处理数据.
- 特征选择和随机森林模型培训.
- 使用网格搜索和模型评估进行超参数调整,以精确度和F1评分.
主要成果:
- 随机森林模型在训练组中实现了67%的准确性和0.64加权的F1分数.
- 在测试组中,模型的准确性降至41.47%,这表明了数据集的不平衡或偏差.
- 没有发现周日与事故发生或严重程度之间存在显著的相关性.
结论:
- 随机森林模型显示在未见数据上预测事故严重性的局限性.
- 解决数据集不平衡和完善超参数是改善模型性能的关键.
- 建议加强数据记录系统和机器学习集成,以获得更好的道路安全结果.
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