港口规划中的弹性评估工具
Manhar Dhanak1, Scott Parr2, Evangelos I Kaisar3
1Florida Atlantic University, USA.
概括
一个新的预测工具使用交通模拟和船舶数据量化港口性. 这种评估方法有助于利益相关者了解风等破坏造成的区域影响,提高港口可行性.
科学领域:
- 海上运输系统分析分析
- 弹性工程就是弹性工程.
- 预测建模的预测建模.
背景情况:
- 美国的港口和码头对国家经济至关重要,但中断可能会造成严重的经济损失.
- 港口现有的性能和弹性措施没有标准化,阻碍了有效的规划.
- 港口利益相关者需要工具来确保长期的运营可行性和弹性.
研究的目的:
- 开发和演示用于评估港口性的一种预测工具.
- 提供一种可量化的方法来评估在破坏性事件下港口性能.
- 提高利益相关者对港口中断造成的区域后果的理解.
主要方法:
- 开发了一种混合多式联运分析工具,将微观交通模拟 (VISSIM) 与港口运营相结合.
- 在VISSIM陆地模拟中使用船舶自动识别系统 (AIS) 数据创建了沿海港口模拟模型.
- 使用时间依赖的弹性图表量化地方和区域的弹性.
主要成果:
- 在美国东南部六个港口展示了预测性港口性评估工具的实用性.
- 在混合模拟中可视化船舶彼此和陆地基础设施的相互作用.
- 量化弹性,显示其作为绩效指标的实用性,特别是在对马修风的反应中.
结论:
- 开发的工具提供了一种新的,以利益相关者为中心的方法来评估港口性.
- 混合建模方法可应用于风以外的各种港口危险.
- 这项研究促进了对区域影响的理解,并改善了对海上运输系统的预测性弹性评估.
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