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接下来是什么? 预测科学研究的趋势
Dan Ofer1, Hadasah Kaufman1, Michal Linial1
1Department of Biological Chemistry, Institute of Life Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel.
Heliyon
|January 15, 2024
概括
预测未来五年的科学研究趋势是可以使用各种数据源的. 这种预测能力有助于机构和资助者对新兴主题进行战略规划.
科学领域:
- 科学研究趋势 科学研究趋势
- 生物医学和生命科学
- 技术和工程技术和工程技术.
背景情况:
- 不断变化的科学兴趣需要用于趋势识别和预测的方法.
- 准确的趋势预测对教育机构,从业者,投资者和资金机构等利益相关者至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 使用异质数据源预测科学出版物的未来趋势.
- 为了证明科学话题的流行和变化的可预测性,提前五年.
主要方法:
- 利用PubMed的历史出版时间序列,研究/评论文章,预训练的语言模型和专利.
- 在40年间分析了125个不同主题,包括生命科学,生物医学,解剖学和STEM领域.
- 调查了评论与原始研究文章的比例,作为主题轨迹的指标.
主要成果:
- 成功预测了科学话题的趋势,提前五年.
- 确定了先前的出版物和未来的专利作为新兴主题的领先指标.
- 发现过多的评论文章标志着科学主题的下降.
- 语言模型增强了对时间动态的洞察力,超过了历史基线.
结论:
- 科学出版的趋势在广泛的学科中是可以预测的.
- 评论与研究文章和专利数据的比例提供了有价值的预测信号.
- 开发了SciTrends,这是一个用于预测PubMed索引出版趋势的网络工具.
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