在中国的乡镇层面预测低碳路径:一个岛屿的案例研究
Yating Zhao1, Yahong Dong2,3, Peng Liu4
1Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Faculty of Innovation Engineering, Macau University of Science and Technology, Avenida Wai Long, Taipa, Macau, China.
Environmental monitoring and assessment
|January 15, 2024
概括
对岛屿城镇的碳预测具有挑战性. 这项研究使用低排放分析平台 (LEAP) 模型来预测中国林山岛的碳排放,并提出了实现减排目标的低碳场景.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候变化建模模型
- 区域碳足迹分析
背景情况:
- 乡镇级碳预测受到数据稀缺的阻碍.
- 林山岛是中国近海岛屿,在碳管理方面面临着独特的挑战.
- 解决局部碳排放预测的研究缺口对于有效的气候战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为一个靠近海岸的岛屿城镇开发碳预测模型,数据有限.
- 为了比较基线和低碳场景,对林山岛的未来排放 (2020-2060).
- 确定主要排放贡献者,并提出减少碳排放的政策建议.
主要方法:
- 利用问卷调查和采访岛屿管理委员会收集数据.
- 采用低排放分析平台 (LEAP) 模型进行碳预测.
- 将基线场景 (当前做法) 与另一个低碳场景进行比较.
主要成果:
- 与能源相关的活动和电力消耗被确定为碳排放的主要来源.
- 根据基线情景,林山岛的碳排放量预计将从2020年的-1333tCO2e增加到2060年的2744tCO2e.
- 一个低碳场景预测2029年的峰值排放量为-850tCO2e,表明减少排放的潜力.
结论:
- 基线情景未能达到林山岛计划的碳峰值目标.
- 开发的LEAP模型和拟议的政策为数据有限的地区减少碳排放提供了可行的框架.
- 该研究提供了一种可转移的方法,用于在类似的岛屿或偏远社区进行碳预测和管理.
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