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空间一致性还是不一致性? 探索建筑扩张模式和洪水风险的时空动态
Mahmoud Mabrouk1, Haoying Han2, Karim I Abdrabo3
1College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China; Faculty of Urban and Regional Planning, Cairo University, Giza, Egypt.
The Science of the total environment
|January 15, 2024
概括
城市扩张模式与沿海城市的洪水风险有明显的相关性. 无计划填充加剧了洪水的脆弱性,突出了城市规划中需要基于自然的解决方案的需要.
科学领域:
- 城市规划和环境科学
- 地理信息系统 (GIS) 和遥感技术
- 减少灾害风险和适应气候变化
背景情况:
- 沿海城市因城市化和气候变化而面临越来越多的洪水风险.
- 建筑扩张 (BE) 模式与洪水风险之间的关系尚不清楚.
- 亚历山大,埃及,一个拥有多样化的城市模式和高降水率的沿海城市,作为一个案例研究.
研究的目的:
- 分析1995年至2023年亚历山大建筑扩张 (BE) 的时空动态.
- 为了量化亚历山大地区的洪水风险.
- 调查BE模式与洪水风险之间的相关性.
主要方法:
- 使用GIS和遥感数据定义了建筑扩张 (BE) 的时空速率.
- 在整个研究区域的空间上量化洪水风险.
- 进行空间和统计分析以确定BE和洪水风险之间的相关性.
主要成果:
- 建筑面积显著增加,填充是占主导地位的BE模式 (45.21%).
- 非计划填充与洪水易受影响的地区有很强的正相关性 (r=0.975).
- 观察到高风险地区和跳跃/边缘扩张 (r=0.118和0.662) 之间的空间不匹配,表明BE数量不足以缓解洪水.
结论:
- 城市规划必须考虑BE模式,而不仅仅是开发的数量,以有效地减轻洪水风险.
- 基于透性的城市配置和基于自然的解决方案对于抗洪城市发展至关重要.
- 整合城市形式与自然系统对于可持续的沿海城市规划至关重要.
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