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禽流感病毒交叉感染作为流行病准备的测试案例:从流行病学危险模型到基于序列的病毒早期预警系统

Harald Brüssow¹

¹Division of Animal and Human Health Engineering, Department of Biosystems, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium.

Microbial biotechnology

|January 16, 2024

概括

疫情防控依赖于对禽流感病毒 (AIV) 的早期预警系统. 专家们确定H7N9和H5N1 AIV亚型是高流行风险,因为特定的突变使人类传播成为可能.

科学领域:

病毒学病毒学
流行病学流行病学
公共卫生公共卫生

背景情况:

疫情防控需要强大的早期预警系统,对具有疫情潜力的病毒进行预警.
禽流感病毒 (AIV) 构成重大威胁,亚型H7N9和H5N1被确定为高风险.
之前的疫情,如中国的H7N9和东南亚的H5N1,强调了AIV跨物种传播的严重后果.

研究的目的:

通过危险模型和专家评估,识别具有大流行潜力的流感病毒.
分析与AIV亚型流行病风险增加相关的病毒特征和突变.
提出一个基于序列的早期预警系统,用于检测预先适应人类传播的AIV.

主要方法:

基于调查数据的危险模型的开发,以识别流行病威胁.
专家小组对10个病毒特征的得分进行归因,以评估流行病风险.
对人类AIV H7N9和H5N1.1分离体中的遗传突变的分析.
实验研究以确定哺乳动物传播所需的突变数量.

主要成果:

禽流感病毒 (AIV) 亚型H7N9和H5N1被确定为构成最大的流行病风险.
人类感染H7N9的病例死亡率 (CFR) 较高,普遍发病的轻微感染有所增加.
H5N1感染显示高CFR (52%),并与家禽流行病有关.
在H7N9和H5N1分离物中发现了血凝素 (HA) 和RNA聚合酶子单元PB2的关键突变,促进了人类交叉感染和哺乳动物传播.

结论:

特定的AIV突变,特别是HA和PB2突变,对于跨越物种障碍进入人类至关重要.
针对养场和活禽市场的基于序列的早期预警系统可以有效监测预先适应人类传播的AIV.
持续的监测和基因分析对于预防未来的流感大流行至关重要.

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