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气候变化决定了美国森林生产力趋势的迹象
J Aaron Hogan1, Grant M Domke2, Kai Zhu3
1Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611.
概括
森林在全球碳汇中发挥着关键作用. 美国东部森林正在增长,而美国西部森林由于气候变化的影响而出现下降.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 林业林业 林业 林业 林业
背景情况:
- 森林是全球土地碳汇的关键组成部分,吸收大约30%的人为碳排放.
- 这种碳汇的稳定性受到增强碳储存 (例如,二氧化碳施肥) 和减少碳储存 (例如,增加干扰) 的因素之间的动态平衡的威胁.
- 量化这些驱动因素对森林生产力的净影响是具有挑战性的,因为将它们的影响与自然干扰和再生周期分开的复杂性.
研究的目的:
- 量化整个美国的森林生产率趋势.
- 区分树林存留年龄,死亡率,收获和气候变化对森林碳捕获的影响.
- 了解森林对环境驱动因素的反应的区域差异.
主要方法:
- 利用适合广泛的美国森林库存数据的非线性模型,包括大约在1999年至2020年期间在非种植森林中重新测量了113,806个地块.
- 考虑了关键的生态变量,包括树年龄,树木死亡率和木材采伐活动.
- 分析了与区域气候变化严重程度相关的生产力趋势.
主要成果:
- 在美国东部观察到普遍积极的生产力趋势,与较温和的气候变化相关.
- 在美国西部记录了负面的生产力趋势,气候变化影响更为严重.
- 归因于美国西部的生产率下降是气候变化对树木生长的不利影响,而不是死亡率或收获增加.
- 在美国东部,森林成熟和二氧化碳施肥对生物质碳汇产生了同等的贡献.
- 证明气候变化的影响超过了水有限的美国西部森林的积极驱动因素.
结论:
- 森林成熟和与年龄无关的驱动因素,如二氧化碳施肥,是美国东部碳汇的重要贡献者.
- 气候变化的不利影响,特别是干旱和热压力,正在导致美国西部森林的生产率下降.
- 森林作为碳汇的未来能力将受到气候变化引起的压力因素的地理范围和严重性的严重影响.
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