死亡率的收和分歧:从1990年到2030年的全球研究
David Atance1, M Mercè Claramunt2, Xavier Varea2
1Departamento de Economía y Dirección de Empresas, Universidad de Alcalá, Madrid, Spain.
PloS one
|January 17, 2024
概括
全球死亡率趋势呈现趋同,长寿率上升,全球差距减少. 确定了五个不同的死亡率趋同俱乐部,反映了大陆配置,并预计到2030年.
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 全球健康 全球健康
背景情况:
- 流行病学过渡理论框架全球死亡率趋同.
- 了解当前的全球死亡率模式和未来的发展轨迹至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 更新对全球死亡率趋同和分歧的理解.
- 使用集群方法分析死亡率指标和预测未来趋势.
主要方法:
- 对9个死亡率指标 (1990-2030) 的综合研究.
- 应用集群方法来确定全球死亡率趋同俱乐部.
- 对融合俱乐部预计轨迹的分析.
主要成果:
- 为194个国家确定了五个不同的死亡率趋同俱乐部,按性别划分,类似于大陆结构.
- 所有俱乐部都显示出日益增长的寿命趋势和日益减少的差异 (性别间和国家间).
- 分析了这些俱乐部的历史演变 (1990-2020年) 和未来预测 (到2030年).
结论:
- 全球死亡率模式正在汇聚到大陆一致的俱乐部中.
- 所有俱乐部的寿命都在增加,性别和国家差异正在减少.
- 预计的趋势表明,持续趋同并减少了全球健康不平等.
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