使用基于代理物的建模来检查监禁环境中COVID-19感染的风险
Reena Chakraborty1, Rebekah Yang2, Tammy Felix2
1District of Columbia Department of Corrections, Washington, DC, USA.
概括
高接触活动显著增加了监狱中的病毒传播,而不是所有的互动. 基于代理的建模 (用于预测监狱有效反应的模拟应用,SAFER-CTM) 提供了在流行病期间管理监狱环境的见解.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 计算机建模 计算建模
背景情况:
- 在机构环境中进行的流行病研究往往过于简化了病毒传播风险.
- 监狱为疾病控制带来了独特的挑战,因为监狱与监狱的距离很近,以及各种各样的互动.
研究的目的:
- 测试所有监狱互动都会带来类似的病毒传播风险的假设.
- 以基于代理的方法在惩戒设施内建模病毒传播动态.
主要方法:
- 基于代理的模型 (ABM) 模拟应用程序的开发,用于预测纠正中的有效响应 (SAFER-CTM).
- 模拟了9个不同的场景,涉及囚犯和工作人员之间的互动.
- 在不同条件下分析病毒传播模式.
主要成果:
- 恢复高接触活动表明对感染人数产生了重大影响.
- 细胞外群体大小和初始疫苗接种率对传播的影响较小.
- 该模型强调了与特定相互作用类型相关的差异性风险.
结论:
- 了解微妙的人际交互对于管理监狱中的病毒传播至关重要.
- 基于代理的模型为惩教管理人员提供了有价值的,现实的数据.
- 针对高风险活动是有效应对疫情的关键.
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