全球河流流域干旱潜力的新兴趋势和空间变化
Jinghua Xiong1, Abhishek2, Shenglian Guo1
1State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, China.
Journal of environmental management
|January 17, 2024
概括
这项研究引入了干旱潜在指数 (DPI),这是通过结合陆地水储量和降水来跟踪干旱的新指标. DPI揭示了全球河流盆地干旱潜力的重大空间变化,为水资源管理提供了更好的见解.
科学领域:
- 水文和气候科学 水文和气候科学
- 环境监测和评估 环境监测和评估
- 水资源管理 水资源管理
背景情况:
- 由于干旱的缓慢,普遍性和复杂的陆地与大气相互作用,干旱的监测具有挑战性.
- 现有的干旱指标往往无法充分捕捉这些复杂的相互作用,限制了它们的有效性.
- 迫切需要先进的干旱评估工具,考虑时间和空间动态.
研究的目的:
- 为了研究新开发的干旱潜在指数 (DPI) 的时空变化.
- 分析推动168个主要全球河流流域DPI变化的影响因素.
- 将DPI的表现与已建立的干旱指数进行比较,以改进干旱检测.
主要方法:
- 利用干旱潜在指数 (DPI),结合先前的陆地水储量和当前降水量.
- 采用空间加权的中心体方法来分析DPI的空间运动和变化.
- 与标准化降水指数 (SPI),土壤湿度异常和多个时间尺度的总储存缺陷指数 (TSDI) 进行DPI性能比较.
主要成果:
- 与现有的干旱指标相比,DPI表现强,提供了更好的洞察力.
- 在干旱地盆地 (0.39%/年) 与湿地 (0.15%/年) 相比,在DPI中观察到更高的增长趋势.
- 六个热点河流盆地 (唐河,黄河,海河,里奥格兰德河,圣弗朗西斯科河,河) 在2003年至2021年期间显示了显著的DPI增长 (2.1-3.5%/年).
- 在30%的全球盆地中检测到DPI显著的度/经度变化 (高达4.9°),突出显示需要考虑空间动态.
结论:
- 干旱潜力指数 (DPI) 为评估干旱潜力提供了一个有价值的工具,有效地捕捉了时空变化.
- 研究结果强调了气候和人为因素对缺水和干旱动态的影响.
- 该研究强调了通过长期趋势和空间变化分析水资源短缺的重要性,以有效管理资源.
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