预测到2048年,韩国未来炎症性肠病的流行率:一项使用自回归集成移动平均模型的流行病学研究
Ji Eun Kim1, Shin Ju Oh1, Chang Kyun Lee1
1Department of Gastroenterology, Center for Crohn's and Colitis, Kyung Hee University Hospital, Kyung Hee University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea.
预计到2048年,韩国的炎症性肠病 (IBD) 患病率将显著上升,男性和20-39岁的年龄组被确定为高风险人口. 这凸显了针对性干预的迫切需要,以管理不断升级的疾病负担.
科学领域:
- 胃肠病学和流行病学
- 公共卫生和预测分析
背景情况:
- 全球炎症性肠病 (IBD) 的升级呈现出越来越多的疾病负担和经济影响,特别是在亚洲.
- 韩国正在经历IBD的日益流行,需要对未来趋势进行分析.
研究的目的:
- 预测到2048年的韩国IBD的未来流行情况.
- 在韩国人口中阐明IBD的流行病学演变模式.
- 确定影响IBD流行趋势的关键人口因素.
主要方法:
- 使用经过验证的诊断算法分析韩国国家健康保险服务数据 (2004-2017年).
- 通过自回归集成移动平均 (ARIMA) 建模,预测2018-2048年IBD患者数量和患病率.
- 使用通用线性模型 (GLM) 来确定驱动IBD流行趋势的因素.
主要成果:
- 该预测模型以2.45%的错误率显示出高准确度.
- 预计到2048年,IBD患病率将达到每10万人中239.73例,平均每年每10万人增加4.51例.
- 确定了年龄,性别和时间对IBD患病率的重大影响,在克罗恩病和性结肠炎的特定年龄组中存在明显的性别差异.
结论:
- 预计到2048年,韩国IBD患病率将大幅增加.
- 男性和20-39岁的年龄组被确定为需要专注关注的关键人口统计数据.
- 针对高风险群体的积极战略对于减轻韩国未来IBD疾病负担至关重要.
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