佛罗里达海岸的阳光明的日子洪水和死亡风险
Valerie Mueller1, Mathew Hauer2, Glenn Sheriff3
1School of Politics and Global Studies, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA; International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, USA.
Demography
|January 18, 2024
概括
海平面上升加剧的沿海潮洪水增加了老年人死亡率. 洪水深度增加会增加死亡率,尤其是远离医院的老年人,延迟紧急医疗护理.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 老年学是一门学科.
背景情况:
- 海平面上升加剧了沿海洪水,影响基本服务和弱势群体.
- 潮洪水对沿海地区的老年人构成重大威胁,影响了获得医疗保健的机会.
- 气候变化引起的海平面上升需要了解其对死亡风险的影响.
研究的目的:
- 研究佛罗里达州老年人口的潮洪水和死亡率之间的历史关系.
- 为了区分常规潮洪水和热带风暴引起的洪水对死亡的影响.
- 预测未来与预计的海平面上升相关的老年死亡风险.
主要方法:
- 利用佛罗里达州沿海地区的死亡,人口统计和居住地点的行政记录.
- 集成的潮测量数据,高分辨率的海拔数据,以及有关风暴和降雨事件的信息.
- 采用经验模型分析洪水深度对65岁及以上人群死亡率的影响.
主要成果:
- 潮洪水深度增加20毫米与老年人死亡率上升0.46%0.60%相关.
- 未来的海平面上升可能会在佛罗里达州每年造成130例老年人死亡,假设条件不变.
- 对于居住在离最近医院9分钟以上的老年人来说,死亡风险更高.
结论:
- 潮洪水加剧了老年人的死亡风险,可能是通过延迟获得关键医疗护理.
- 海平面上升对沿海老年人口的健康和生存构成越来越大的威胁.
- 有针对性的干预措施和改善医疗保健准入对于减轻脆弱社区洪水相关死亡风险至关重要.
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