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相关概念视频

The Evidence for Evolution02:55

The Evidence for Evolution

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Genetic variations accumulating within populations over generations give rise to biological evolution. Evolutionary changes can result in the formation of novel varieties and entire new species. These changes are responsible for the diverse forms of life inhabiting the planet. The evidence for evolution suggests that all living organisms descended from common ancestors.
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Hindsight Biases01:12

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Hindsight bias leads you to believe that the event you just experienced was predictable, even though it really wasn’t. In other words, you knew all along that things would turn out the way they did. Can you relate this to the phrase "Hindsight is 20/20" now? 
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The Fossil Record02:56

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The fossil record documents only a small fraction of all organisms that have ever inhabited Earth. Fossilization is a rare process, and most organisms never become fossils. Moreover, the fossil record only exhibits fossils that have been discovered. Nevertheless, sedimentary rock fossils of long-lived, abundant, hard-bodied organisms dominate the fossil record. These fossils offer valuable information, such as an organism's physical form, behavior, and age. Studying the fossil record helps...
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The first human genome sequencing project cost $2.7 billion and was declared complete in 2003, after 15 years of international cooperation and collaboration between several research teams and funding agencies. Today, with the advent of next-generation sequencing technologies, the cost and time of sequencing a human genome have dropped over 100 fold.
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While variables are sometimes correlated because one does cause the other, it could also be that some other factor, a confounding variable, is actually causing the systematic movement in our variables of interest. For instance, as sales in ice cream increase, so does the overall rate of crime. Is it possible that indulging in your favorite flavor of ice cream could send you on a crime spree? Or, after committing crime do you think you might decide to treat yourself to a cone?
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The interval estimate of any variable is known as the prediction interval. It helps decide if a point estimate is dependable.
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Using Generative Art to Convey Past and Future Climate Transitions
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来自未来的证据.

Tianwei Gong1, Neil R Bramley1

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概括
此摘要是机器生成的。

从时间序列数据的因果推断是灵活的. 框架影响人们是否专注于结果时间或推断趋势,影响对治疗效果的判断.

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科学领域:

  • 认知心理学 认知心理学
  • 因果推理因果推理
  • 决策科学 决策科学 决策科学

背景情况:

  • 从时间数据做出因果推断是科学理解的基础.
  • 现有的理论提供了关于结果时间对因果判断的影响的竞争性预测.

研究的目的:

  • 研究个人如何在不同的框架条件下从时间数据中做出因果推断.
  • 检查时间因果推理中连续性和推断的作用.

主要方法:

  • 进行了三项实验,参与者在几天内观察虚构的生物实验.
  • 指令框架操纵了观察是否被认为是预先计划的或正在进行的.
  • 数据呈现方式 (顺序与块) 也有所不同.

主要成果:

  • 因果判断对指令框架敏感,在基于连续性和基于推断的推理之间转移.
  • 当观察被定义为持续的或数据是连续的时,参与者依赖于推断.
  • 预先计划的观察框架导致了被连续性强烈影响的判断.

结论:

  • 人类因果推理与时间证据是高度灵活和适应性的.
  • 任务框架显著塑造了个人如何解释因果推理的时间序列数据.
  • 了解这些偏见对于准确的科学解释至关重要.