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在气候变化下评估洪台盆地污染负荷的响应特征
Jianwei Liu1, Mingwei Wang2, Xiaoteng Pang2
1School of Hydraulic Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, 116024, China. jwliu@dlut.edu.cn.
Environmental monitoring and assessment
|January 18, 2024
概括
气候变化将增加洪台盆地的温度和降水量,影响和污染负载. 场景SSP126和SSP245表明,尽管污染初始增加,但更好的长期可持续发展.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 水文学的水文学
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 气候变化对水资源和污染动态产生重大影响.
- 洪台盆地面临着水文过程和水质的潜在变化.
研究的目的:
- 评估气候变化对洪台盆地水文过程和污染负载的影响.
- 在各种气候变化情景下调查未来的水质趋势.
主要方法:
- 衡量土壤和水资源评估工具 (SWAT) 模型,用于洪台盆地.
- 使用CMIP6气候模型 (SSP126,SSP245,SSP585,MME) 进行未来预测.
主要成果:
- 预计每年平均气温和降水量增加.
- 和污染负载呈现下降-上升-下降趋势,随着辐射强迫而加剧.
- 二氧化碳被确定为污染的主要驱动因素;SSP126和SSP245场景显示,与其他场景相比,整体驱动因素较低.
结论:
- 根据SSP126和SSP245的情景,洪台盆地长期可能有更好的可持续发展潜力.
- 研究结果为在不断变化的气候条件下水环境保护战略提供了关键的参考.
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