对大气样本采集源位置算法的比较
Paul W Eslinger1, W Steven Rosenthal1, Ramesh S Sarathi1
1Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 902 Battelle Blvd., Richland, WA, 99354, USA.
Journal of environmental radioactivity
|January 18, 2024
概括
对大气放射性核素释放源估计的贝叶斯模型提供了比确定性模型更准确的位置和释放大小. 随着更短的采样时间,位置准确性得到改善,尽管密集的网络仍然可以产生差的估计.
科学领域:
- 大气中的放射性核素运输建模
- 核监测和核验证技术 核监测和核验证技术
背景情况:
- 有许多算法用于确定大气放射性核素释放源的特征.
- 国际监测系统 (IMS) 为全面禁止核试验条约组织 (CTBTO) 收集数据.
研究的目的:
- 比较放射性核素释放的三个源位置模型的性能.
- 在使用IMS数据估计源事件参数时评估模型准确性.
主要方法:
- 与两个贝叶斯模型 (BAYEST和FREAR) 进行了确定性可能源区域 (PSR) 模型的比较.
- 使用100个合成释放异同位素133Xe.e.的模型进行评估.
- 利用了一个虚构的网络,由120个贵重气体采样器组成,采集时间不同 (3-24小时).
主要成果:
- 贝叶斯模型 (BAYEST,FREAR) 提供了比确定性PSR模型更准确的位置估计.
- FREAR的位置性能略好于BAYEST的位置性能.
- 随着BAYEST的样本采集时间缩短,位置准确性得到改善.
- 贝叶斯模型估计释放大小,与基础PSR模型不同.
- 不良的位置/时间估计发生在释放点远离样本时,无论模型如何.
结论:
- 与PSR方法相比,贝叶斯源定位算法提供了更高的准确性和大小估计能力.
- 采样策略,特别是采集时间,影响估计的准确性.
- 即使是密集的采样网络也可以在特定的释放场景下产生不可靠的结果.
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