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模拟不同情景下的中国以煤炭资源为基础的城市的可持续土地管理的土地利用变化

Shengpeng Li¹, Yingui Cao², Jianling Liu³

¹School of Land Science and Technology, China University of Geosciences Beijing, Beijing 100083, China.

The Science of the total environment

|January 18, 2024

概括

中国未来的土地使用情况.

科学领域:

环境科学环境科学
城市规划城市规划
资源管理资源管理

背景情况:

在以资源为基础的城市,特别是中国的煤炭地区,土地使用竞争对可持续发展构成了挑战.
预测未来的土地使用变化对于有效的可持续发展战略至关重要.

研究的目的:

通过共享社会经济路径和代表性度路径 (SSP-RCPs) 来预测2020-2060年中国煤炭城市的土地使用变化.
确定关键管理区域,以平衡生态保护和粮食安全.
为可持续发展提出有针对性的土地管理措施.

主要方法:

使用了补丁生成的土地利用模拟 (PLUS) 模型.
集成的SSP-RCP场景 (SSP126,SSP245,SSP585) 用于未来的土地使用预测.
分析了模拟准确性的驱动因素和模型参数.

主要成果:

PLUS模型准确地模拟了土地使用变化 (整体准确度:0.95,卡帕:0.92).
预计草原将减少,而森林和建筑用地将在所有情景中增加.
建筑土地的扩张对耕地和草原构成重大风险,需要有针对性的管理.

结论:

未来的土地使用场景突出显示,由于城市扩张,生态和农业用地的压力越来越大.
该研究提出了一个土地管理框架,以减轻风险并支持煤炭城市的可持续发展.
调查结果为类似依赖资源的城市地区的土地利用规划和政策制定提供了宝贵的见解.

关键词:

基于煤炭资源的城市城市补丁生成的土地使用模拟模型模型.政策影响政策影响可持续的土地使用.

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