在英国,模拟电气化铁路信号系统在极端太空天气事件期间出现的故障
Cameron J Patterson1, James A Wild2, Ciarán D Beggan2
1Department of Physics, Lancaster University, Lancaster, LA1 4YW, UK. c.patterson2@lancaster.ac.uk.
Scientific reports
|January 18, 2024
概括
太空天气可能会破坏铁路信号系统. 这项研究模拟了极端地磁风暴,发现了英国铁路线路的潜在故障,特别是在严重事件期间.
科学领域:
- 地质物理学 地质物理学
- 电气工程 电气工程
- 铁路系统工程 铁路系统工程
背景情况:
- 太空天气事件,特别是地磁风暴,对关键的地面基础设施构成风险.
- 在此类事件中,铁路信号系统容易受到地磁诱导电流 (GIC) 的影响.
- 了解这些影响对于确保铁路安全和运营连续性至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析GIC在过去的地磁风暴 (1989年3月,2003年10月) 中对英国铁路信号系统的影响.
- 模拟极端地磁风暴 (每100年1次,每200年1次) 对铁路运营的潜在影响.
- 评估信号系统中"右侧"和"错误侧"故障的风险.
主要方法:
- 利用最近开发的模型来模拟GIC对铁路信号的影响.
- 模拟了两个特定的英国铁路路线:格拉斯哥到爱丁堡线和普雷斯顿到兰卡斯特 (西海岸主线).
- 缩小了1989年3月的风暴数据,以估计极端,较罕见事件的影响.
主要成果:
- 对于模拟的风暴 (1989年,2003年),没有预测到"右侧"故障.
- 在历史风暴中,发现了很少的潜在"错误侧面"故障.
- 极端风暴 (每100/200年一次) 表示两条路线可能出现"右侧"和"错误侧"故障.
- 格拉斯哥到爱丁堡的线路显示,与普雷斯顿到兰卡斯特段相比,潜在的错误运行总数更高.
- 在极端风暴期间的错误操作可能在风暴峰值时持续2-3小时.
结论:
- 虽然历史上风暴的风险很小,但极端的太空天气事件对英国铁路信号完整性构成有形威胁.
- 在极端条件下,格拉斯哥至爱丁堡线似乎比普雷斯顿至兰卡斯特线更容易受到信号错误的影响.
- 缓解策略可能是必要的,以保护铁路系统在严重的太空天气事件期间免受长时间的干扰.
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