突发干旱的特征及其与中国复合天气极端现象的关联:观察和模型模拟
Yuqing Zhang1, Qinglong You2, Changchun Chen3
1School of Geography and Planning, Huaiyin Normal University, Huai'an 223300, China; Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences & Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433, China.
The Science of the total environment
|January 19, 2024
概括
在中国,突然的干旱正在增加,变得越来越频繁和快速,特别是在南部. 复合气象极端变化越来越有可能在变暖的气候中引发这些快速干旱.
科学领域:
- 干旱研究 干旱研究
- 气候变化影响气候变化的影响.
- 极端天气事件是极端天气事件.
背景情况:
- 突发干旱对粮食安全,生态稳定和人类健康构成重大威胁.
- 关于暴干的预测变化及其与复合气象极端事件 (CMEs) 的联系的研究有限.
研究的目的:
- 通过使用观测数据和模型模拟,研究快速干旱的特征及其与CME的关联.
- 在不同的排放场景下分析暴干频率和发病时间的预测变化.
主要方法:
- 利用pentad-mean缺水指数来分析突然干旱的特征.
- 使用缩小规模的气候模型模拟和历史观测数据进行分析.
主要成果:
- 观察到中国各地暴干频率的增加趋势,迅速发作 (五分之一) 变得越来越普遍.
- 预计未来闪干旱的频率会显著增加,特别是在高排放场景下.
- 确定CME是突然干旱的关键触发因素,在未来变暖下,它们的可能性会增加,特别是在中国南部.
结论:
- 在中国,突然干旱变得越来越频繁和迅速,南部地区尤其容易受到影响.
- 预计未来的气候变暖将加剧突然干旱事件及其与CME的联系.
- 迫切需要适应和减缓战略,以应对快速干旱日益严重的威胁.
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