在巴西寨卡病毒出现三年后,登革热的变化模式在巴西出现了寨卡病毒
Francesco Pinotti1, Marta Giovanetti2,3,4, Maricelia Maia de Lima5
1Department of Biology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom. francesco.pinotti@biology.ox.ac.uk.
Nature communications
|January 20, 2024
概括
寨卡病毒 (ZIKV) 的出现影响了登革热病毒 (DENV) 循环,使得登革热病毒的发病率向年轻人转移. 数学建模表明,ZIKV交叉保护和疾病增强解释了这些流行病学变化.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 病毒学 病毒学
- 数学生物学 数学生物学
背景情况:
- 2015年在巴西出现的寨卡病毒 (ZIKV) 与拉丁美洲的登革热病毒 (DENV) 流通量下降相吻合.
- 在2018-2019年,DENV复苏,其流行病学模式出现了变化.
研究的目的:
- 调查ZIKV出现对DENV流行病学的影响.
- 分析ZIKV疫情爆发前后DENV的特定年龄发病率数据.
- 评估ZIKV诱导的交叉保护和潜在的疾病增强在DENV动态中的作用.
主要方法:
- 从ZIKV出现之前 (2013-2015年) 和之后的特定年龄的DENV发病率数据的分析.
- 应用数学模型来模拟DENV传输动态.
- 观察到的DENV年龄转移与包含交叉保护和疾病增强的模型预测的比较.
主要成果:
- 与2013-2015年相比,DENV发病率在复苏期间转移到年轻年龄组.
- 这种年龄转移在巴西地区更为明显,那里有较大的ZIKV疫情.
- 单独由ZIKV诱导的交叉保护无法解释观察到的DENV下降和年龄转移;疾病增强也是必要的.
结论:
- 齐克病毒的出现显著改变了DENV的流行病学,包括发病平均年龄的显著变化.
- 人口对ZIKV的免疫力可能会抑制DENV的传播,并通过复杂的相互作用影响其年龄分布.
- 研究结果表明,ZIKV免疫的保护和增强作用都在调节DENV动态中发挥作用.
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